Savvy bettors are always looking for the best betting strategy. But with so much information online, where can you find accurate and trusted techniques? This article aims to give you some background on how to bet on sports.
Whichever sports pique your interest, this article will detail the top strategies for your betting plan. We break down the backbone of live betting, key considerations and insights, plus a diverse range of popular approaches such as value betting, live betting, and math- or statistics-based plans. Keep reading for in-depth details on the best sports wagering techniques.
| Bet Stake | Decide how much to stake per bet. |
|---|---|
| Sport or Event | Research into specific markets unique to the sport. Gain knowledge of the participants and recent results. |
| Type of Bet | Will you bet on a single, double, multiple, or system bet? |
| Time of Bet Placement | Bet on current fixtures or look for value in future events. |
Betting is a human-centred pastime. Each bettor has unique foibles, quirks, and biases. So whether you are new to online betting or a seasoned veteran, having a set of reference points to reflect on if you experience a downswing and the confidence to stick with your original plan will enhance your playing journey.
So, use the best betting strategy that adapts to you as an individual rather than adopting a blanket approach.
When you form a betting strategy, drill down into these key elements first. Base your approach on the following:
Decide on your mindset in terms of risk. Are you aiming for small wins or betting with the chance for higher winnings? This decision will inform your overall approach and feed into bankroll management.
Like most sports bettors, bankroll management is key, as you aim to maximize possible winnings while limiting the risk of losing your bankroll.
The main methods are:
Consider the unique factors of each event. Soccer betting has a myriad of markets, so look for the best value within the moneyline, handicap, overs/unders, or where your knowledge is most detailed.
Looking at the odds and their relative probability plays an essential role in bet choice.
Set realistic expectations. Only bet with money you have put aside specifically for betting and are prepared to lose.
Track each bet and outcome in a spreadsheet or physical paper book. The time taken to keep detailed records is valuable when you reflect and get insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the strategy.
A simple tracker could include bet stake, selection details, odds, percentage of the bankroll, and result.
Every punter starts as a relative novice, but this is no barrier to kicking off. Instead, consider it a starting point or a foundation from which you only gather more skills and information over time.
When road testing a new sports betting strategy, a level-headed way forward is to begin with small stakes. Perhaps consider starting with staking a very small percentage or a fixed amount of your bankroll. Then, build up as your confidence grows.
You don’t want to bite off more than you can chew if you’re new to the experience, and doing so might dissuade you from learning to bet properly.
A beginner might feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of sports or betting markets. So pick one sport and take a look at the markets within. For example, in basketball, learn about the differences between moneylines, points spreads, player proposition bets, and betting on quarters and halves.
Before you dive into complicated handicaps or other particular wagers, consider the merits of looking at the most simple markets. This could be Moneyline in US sports or the similar Match Winner in soccer. Once you gain an understanding of the various possible outcomes of the most basic markets, then you will be prepared to tackle more complex systems.
One of the key lessons in sports betting strategy is to compare odds between bookmakers. So-called “line shopping” is a good habit, in order to get fair value. Don’t just settle for the first odds offer you see because there is likely a competitive counteroffer out there.
As you can see, the betting learning curve naturally starts off simple in order to build a solid foundation of knowledge. After some trial and error learning the basics, you can then delve into advanced live betting strategies for a more challenging and dynamic experience.
We have covered sports betting strategy basics. Now, let’s go deeper into specific techniques. The following popular betting strategies each give you a slightly different approach.
Betting on live action offers the opportunity to analyze the odds in real-time. If you believe a soccer match will be low-scoring, backing under 2.5 goals is an option. Likewise, fast-moving action brings a myriad of betting strategy options, but you need to be able to think just as fast and still make informed decisions.
Hedging a market involves covering multiple outcomes in an event. Horse racing is a prime example if you bet on several horses in one race.
After a sizable number of bets, you may wonder: Where do I go next? Such is the unpredictable nature of sports betting strategy; it makes sense to adapt and evolve each method.
Also known as “arbing,” an arbitrage bet removes risk by betting on all possible outcomes of an event. Bookmakers dislike this betting style, as arbing removes the “house edge,” contrary to traditional betting practice. If you bet on arbs, expect to be stake-limited quickly.
Value betting is when the true odds of an event are calculated and compared to the odds of the betting sites to see if you can make a return on a bet.
You may also find value in enhanced odds and price boosts, where the bookmaker increases the odds to a standout price on a particular selection, as one of the betting strategies that work. This sports betting strategy needs discipline to ignore short-term wins and losses with a consistent focus on value, thereby hoping to win across a sample of long-term bets.
With betting strategies based on statistical modelling, you search for bookmakers’ odds that do not reflect the actual chance of an outcome occurring.
Data-based methods can be helpful for large data sets on correct scores, number of corners, and such. To start, create a spreadsheet for a statistical model like a poisson distribution or regression analysis. Then, input the relevant data to predict the accurate odds. However, this advanced thinking needs basic statistics knowledge, patience, and a head for numbers.
Data science and data analysis are gaining traction in online betting strategies that work. The likes of Joseph Buchdahl on X (“Twitter”) are evidence of this.
The Kelly formula is popular with value bettors. Kelly aims to calculate the ideal stake for your bankroll.
Soccer betting strategy is a fine example if you pick a team to win.
This means that you multiply 0.7 by your odds, 1.7, which gives you 1.19. Then you minus 1 from 1.19, giving you 0.19.
From there, work out the optimal Kelly stake: Percentage of bankroll to bet = value divided by (odds minus 1)
So that means you would take 0.05 divided by (1.7 minus 1), which is really 0.05 divided by 0.7. This gives you 0.07, which is 7%.
In sum, Kelly suggests betting 7% of the total bankroll on the selection. However, this is an advanced strategy recommended for more experienced players.
The likes of Fibonacci and Martingale involve doubling down on losing streaks, so these are not recommended for most bettors. These overhyped techniques have little ballast, so they are best avoided.
Remember that no strategy is foolproof, and what works for one won’t necessarily work for all. With several strategies to consider, let’s discuss a couple main tips about how to stay on track to ensure your chosen betting strategies continue to work.
It is a tedious task, but keeping track of every bet you place is invaluable information to inform your online betting strategies in the present and future. You can create a spreadsheet, download a handy bet keeping app, or even choose a simple notepad if you have the time to go old-school.
Over time, your information log can build up and paint a more accurate picture of what is working and what needs refinement.
Your ongoing betting will be trial-and-error with real-life wagers. Don’t put all your eggs into one basket waiting for a specific strategy to work out for you. You’ll need to adapt your strategies over time based on your outcomes, as well as your betting needs and preferences, which will also change the longer you bet.
Also, you could consider running Monte Carlo simulations to test expected outcomes over a large sample of potential bets. These tests can help you change your approach to each sport.
This article has stressed the importance of a considered method when you aim to find the best betting strategy. Start by defining your risk appetite, followed by a sensible staking plan, and look at the available odds to find value in the markets.
We have looked at strategies like in-play betting, arbitrage, and value betting, as well as more advanced strategies like data-based methods and the Kelly formula, and also discussed how sports betting strategy is a continuous process. Fast-moving sports events and markets mean successful bettors adapt to the prevailing odds.
Whichever strategy you choose, responsible betting is important, as is enjoying the whole process.
Sport is dynamic and ever-changing. So there is no definitive best betting strategy. Rather, the most successful betting ideas involve constant testing and refinement.
Like any available betting strategy, if you tackle betting in-play, remember to follow these principles: define your total bankroll, benchmark the odds and their value, and stay disciplined as you navigate the quirks of real-time betting.
When you start, try a basic betting strategy: narrow your focus to a specific sport or even a single market in the sport. Learn about the potential outcomes and how bookmaker odds change to reflect the chance of an outcome happening.
No sports bettor wins all the time. Be realistic and accept that sports betting involves both wins and losses, which are part of the betting journey.
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